Leverkusen v Marseille, Milan's bounce and Brighton in Getafe: Thursday's European preview

Thursday night has more than enough story of its own. In the Europa League, Leverkusen are the only side yet to concede, while Marseille and Celtic are still waiting for a point. Milan come off a derby win, and Juventus come off a win over Napoli. In the Conference League, Brighton go to Getafe five days after beating Manchester City, and Ajax take their in-form pair of substitutes to Denmark.

The Europa League is at matchday 4 of eight and the Conference League at matchday 3 of six. In both, the top eight go straight into the last 16 and 9th to 24th into the play-offs. Here is how Cortex, our model, sees the biggest ties. Every price is the best we found at the time of writing, and prices move before kick-off.

Leverkusen v Marseille: second against 34th

Leverkusen, the 2024 finalists, are second on nine points with three wins from three, and they are the only team in the Europa League still to concede. Marseille are 34th with no points, and their last European outing was a 1–0 defeat to Sturm Graz.

The domestic picture is not so neat for Leverkusen. On Saturday they lost 4–2 at home to Stuttgart, with Ermedin Demirović scoring twice. Three clean sheets in Europe, then four goals conceded at home: Thursday tells us which one is the truer picture.

Did you know? Leverkusen's last European final was in Dublin in May 2024, when Ademola Lookman scored all three goals in Atalanta's 3–0 win. That defeat ended Leverkusen's record 51-game unbeaten run.

Cortex's call: Leverkusen to win, 67%, best price 1.45. Over 2.5 goals is 64% (1.50). Expected goals: Leverkusen 1.88, Marseille 1.06.

AC Milan v Ferencváros: from Bournemouth to the derby, and back to Europe

No team's last fortnight has swung like Milan's. On matchday 3 they lost 3–0 at Bournemouth: Justin Kluivert and Marcus Tavernier scored first-half penalties, either side of a red card for goalkeeper Mike Maignan, and Amine Adli added a late free-kick. Nine days later Milan beat Inter 3–1 in the derby, with Christian Pulisic, Adrien Rabiot and Diego Moreira scoring and Maignan making the big saves. Inter had 57% of the ball and 11 corners, and still lost. Ruben Amorim, in his first derby, kept it in proportion: "It was not an amazing game, but it's an amazing night for our fans."

Milan are 24th on three points, the last place that leads to the play-offs. Ferencváros are fourth with three wins from three, the latest a 4–1 over Torreense.

Cortex's call: Milan to win, 67%, best price 1.36. Over 2.5 goals is 61% (1.57).

AZ v Juventus: a weekend apart

Juventus are seventh on seven points after a 2–2 draw with Rennes, in which Zeki Çelik scored early and Nick Woltemade took his tally in this campaign to three with a penalty. On Sunday they beat Napoli 2–0, with Kerim-Sam Alajbegović scoring his first Serie A goal and Jérémie Boga curling in a second. Juventus had 18 shots to Napoli's eight, and Napoli's Luca Marianucci was sent off.

AZ are tenth on six points after a 4–0 win in Armenia, with two from Weslley Patati, but they lost 1–0 at Ajax on Saturday despite 19 shots to Ajax's nine.

Cortex's call: Juventus or draw, 74%, best price 1.30. Both teams to score is 57% (1.73). Cortex sees almost nothing between them on expected goals: AZ 1.50, Juventus 1.55.

Celtic v Beşiktaş: Celtic need a point, any point

Celtic are 35th of 36, with no points and a goal difference of −6. Their latest defeat was 2–1 at home to Celta, with Javi Rodríguez scoring twice in four minutes. Beşiktaş are eighth on seven points and come in after a 2–2 draw with Crystal Palace, in which Wilfred Ndidi and Junior Olaitan scored for them and Ümit Akdağ was sent off.

With five games left, Celtic are three points behind 24th place. A home defeat would make the play-offs a very steep climb.

Did you know? Celtic were the first British club to win the European Cup, beating Inter 2–1 in Lisbon on 25 May 1967. Every member of that 15-man squad was born within 30 miles of Celtic Park.

Cortex's call: Beşiktaş or draw, 68%, best price 1.44. Both teams to score is 63% (1.53). Cortex has Beşiktaş ahead on expected goals, 2.12 to 1.43.

Getafe v Brighton: the giant-killers on the road

Brighton have just won at the Etihad: Yasin Ayari scored after 11 minutes, Bart Verbruggen saved everything else, and it was Brighton's first away win against Manchester City at the 18th attempt. Fabian Hürzeler called it "a completely defensive performance". Brighton have now beaten both Arsenal and City this season.

In the Conference League they have four points from two games, a 4–0 win over Kauno Žalgiris, with two goals from Georginio Rutter, and a 0–0 at Jablonec, where Verbruggen made a one-handed save from Jiří Sláma to keep the point. "We push each other," Rutter said of the squad. Getafe have one point, from a 1–1 with Universitatea Craiova, and lost their last game 5–2 at home to Lugano after scoring inside two minutes.

Cortex's call: Brighton to win, 57%, best price 1.67.

Midtjylland v Ajax: the same two names again

Ajax lost their opener 2–1 at Hajduk Split, where Davy Klaassen's goal was not enough, then beat Atalanta 2–0 in Amsterdam, with substitutes Tolu Arokodare and Abdellah Ouazane scoring late. On Saturday the same pair did it again: Arokodare headed in Ouazane's cross to beat AZ 1–0, Ajax's first win over AZ since March 2022. It ended an 11-game run without a win against AZ, the longest against any one opponent in Ajax's history. Ajax are second in the Eredivisie, a point behind Feyenoord.

Midtjylland have one point, from a 1–1 with Egnatia, and lost 1–0 at home to Sint-Truiden last time.

Cortex's call: Ajax or draw, 66%, best price 1.45. Both teams to score is 65% (1.44).

Quick-fire: other ties worth a look

• Sparta Prague v Bournemouth (EL, 17:45): Bournemouth are third and perfect. Bournemouth win, 60% (1.56).
• Benfica v Lech Poznań (EL): the leaders on nine points host the 32nd-placed side. Over 2.5 goals, 71% (1.37).
• Sunderland v Dinamo Zagreb (EL): Sunderland are unbeaten. Sunderland win, 63% (1.50).
• Crystal Palace v Hoffenheim (EL, 17:45): both teams to score, 63% (1.50).
• Trabzonspor v Freiburg (UECL, 17:45): Mohamed Salah scored and made one in Trabzonspor's 2–0 win over Hearts. Trabzonspor or draw, 66% (1.51).
• Panathinaikos v CSKA Sofia (UECL): the Conference League leaders, who won 5–1 at Kairat, and Cyriel Dessers' double made him the competition's joint record scorer. Panathinaikos win, 60% (1.57).
• Real Sociedad v Lyon (EL, 17:45), Atalanta v Kairat (UECL, 17:45) and Monaco v Nordsjælland (UECL)

These are Cortex's most likely outcomes, not guarantees: a 70% pick still loses three times in ten. If you combine picks, every leg has to win, so the overall chance drops fast. Every pick goes on our public track record, win or lose. For Tuesday and Wednesday, see our Champions League preview.

Sources: Maxifoot: Europa League table, UEFA: Europa League matchday 3 round-up, UEFA: Conference League matchday 1 round-up, UEFA: Conference League matchday 2 round-up, AP via Yahoo Sports: Leverkusen 2–4 Stuttgart, AC Milan: derby report, JuveFC: Juventus 2–0 Napoli, FCUpdate: Ajax 1–0 AZ, FCUpdate: Ajax v AZ stats, beIN Sports: Man City 0–1 Brighton, Jamaica Observer: Man City 0–1 Brighton, UEFA: Conference League matchday 2 briefing, ESPN: Milan 3–1 Inter, Yahoo Sports: Amorim, Goal: Juventus 2–0 Napoli, Bundesliga.com: 2024 Europa League final, Wikipedia: Lisbon Lions

18+. Our picks are chances, not certainties. Please bet responsibly.