Villa's perfect start meets Camp Nou: Champions League matchday 4 preview

The league phase reaches halfway this week. Five clubs still have perfect records: PSG, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Real Madrid and Real Betis, all on nine points. Below them it is crowded. Bayern are 14th, Manchester United 20th and Inter 21st, all with work to do.

The top eight go straight into the last 16, 9th to 24th go into the play-offs, and everyone else goes home. Here is the story of the biggest ties and how Cortex, our model, sees each one. Every price is the best we found at the time of writing, and prices move before kick-off.

Barcelona v Aston Villa: the perfect record goes to Camp Nou

Villa arrive second in the table, with three wins from three and a goal difference of +9. Their latest European win was a 3–1 against Viking, with goals from Ross Barkley, an Emiliano Buendía penalty and an own goal. Barcelona are eighth on six points after their first defeat of the campaign, a 4–2 loss in Paris in which Lamine Yamal and Xavi Espart scored.

• Villa's week was not perfect: they lost 3–0 at Bournemouth in the Carabao Cup, and Taylor Harwood-Bellis is unlikely to play in Barcelona.
• Dani Olmo was forced off injured in that defeat in Paris.
• Asked if Villa are still Champions League outsiders, Unai Emery said they had been in past years, "but this year, until now, no."

The history: These two have met before, with a trophy at stake. Villa won the European Cup in 1982 and Barcelona the Cup Winners' Cup, so they met in the European Super Cup. Barcelona won the first leg 1–0 at Camp Nou in January 1983. A week later Villa won 3–0 after extra time at Villa Park and took the trophy 3–1 on aggregate.

Cortex's call: Barcelona to win, 76%, best price 1.28. It expects goals at both ends: over 2.5 goals is 79% (1.22) and both teams to score 65% (1.50). Expected goals: Barcelona 2.82, Villa 1.71.

Atlético Madrid v Bayern: no Kompany, and a long injury list

Bayern are 14th on five points after a 2–2 with Arsenal, and they travel without their head coach. Vincent Kompany collapsed at training on 23 October and was taken to hospital with a virus. Max Eberl said: "We won't be talking about days but weeks." Assistant Aaron Danks has taken the team since.

Saturday's 2–2 with Dortmund made things worse: Bayern lost Michael Olise, Serge Gnabry and Ismael Saibari to injuries during the game. Atlético have four points and drew 1–1 with Stuttgart last time out, a game in which Morten Hjulmand was sent off.

The history: They met in the 1974 European Cup final in Brussels. Luis Aragonés put Atlético ahead with a free-kick in the 114th minute, and Georg Schwarzenbeck equalised in the 120th. Two days later Bayern won the replay 4–0, with two goals each for Uli Hoeneß and Gerd Müller.

Cortex's call: both teams to score, 69%, best price 1.44. Over 2.5 goals is 67% (1.52), and Bayern or the draw 62% (1.50).

Villarreal v PSG: the leaders count the cost

PSG are top after beating Barcelona 4–2, but that night was expensive. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia tore his anterior cruciate ligament and needs an operation, and Ousmane Dembélé and Marquinhos have thigh injuries expected to keep them out for "several weeks".

Villarreal are 19th on three points, and they know how cruel this competition can be. They led 2–0 at Anfield inside half an hour and lost 4–3, with Alexis Mac Allister scoring twice for Liverpool.

Did you know? Villarreal's first European title came in the 2021 Europa League final, against Manchester United. It finished 1–1 and went to an 11–10 shoot-out, and goalkeeper Gerónimo Rulli scored his penalty and then saved David de Gea's.

Cortex's call: over 2.5 goals, 72%, best price 1.36. Both teams to score is 68% (1.44). Even without their stars, PSG are still Cortex's pick to win at 57% (1.64).

Manchester United v Roma: a European night for a manager under pressure

United are 20th on three points, and the last fortnight has been grim. They lost 4–1 at Como, where Nico Paz scored twice, and became the first English team to concede inside the first two minutes of two major European games in a row. On Saturday they lost 2–0 at Chelsea after Lisandro Martínez was sent off. That left them 17th in the Premier League and nine games without a win in all competitions.

Roma are 15th on four points, after a 4–0 home win over Slovan Bratislava and a 1–1 draw with Fenerbahçe. Manuel Ugarte, Benjamin Šeško, Luke Shaw and Patrick Dorgu were all missing for United at Stamford Bridge.

The history: In April 2007 United beat Roma 7–1 at Old Trafford in a Champions League quarter-final. Michael Carrick, now the man in the dugout, scored twice that night, as did Cristiano Ronaldo. United also won 6–2 at Old Trafford in the 2021 Europa League semi-final.

Cortex's call: Manchester United or draw, 67%, best price 1.50. Both teams to score is 65% (1.47) and over 2.5 goals 64% (1.55). Cortex has United well ahead on expected goals, 2.48 to 1.24.

Fenerbahçe v Liverpool: a bruised Liverpool head to Kadıköy

Liverpool are third, one of the five perfect sides, after a wild 4–3 win over Villarreal. At the weekend they ran into Arsenal and lost 1–0 at Anfield, with 17 shots and none on target. Fenerbahçe are 31st on two points after draws with Roma and Slavia Prague, and they lost the Istanbul derby 2–1 at Galatasaray a week ago.

• Dominik Szoboszlai (hamstring) missed the Arsenal game, and Jeremie Frimpong has a new muscle injury. Andoni Iraola said of Frimpong: "Difficult to predict."
• Hugo Ekitike is still recovering from the Achilles tear he suffered in April and is not expected back until early 2027.

Did you know? Istanbul has been kind to Liverpool. The 2005 Champions League final against Milan was played at the city's Atatürk Olympic Stadium, and in 2019 they beat Chelsea 5–4 on penalties at Beşiktaş's ground to win the Super Cup.

Cortex's call: over 2.5 goals, 67%, best price 1.50. Both teams to score is 63% (1.57) and a Liverpool win 59% (1.61). Cortex's expected goals are level at 2.29 each.

RB Leipzig v Manchester City: two wobbles, one must-win

City are tenth on six points. They beat AEK Athens 5–1 last time out, with a Phil Foden hat-trick while Erling Haaland sat on the bench, but their league form has gone. Saturday's 1–0 home defeat to Brighton was a second league loss in a row, and Enzo Maresca called it "a bit strange".

Leipzig are 29th on three points and have been beaten 4–1 twice, by Como and by Real Madrid. A third defeat would leave them a long way from the top 24.

The history: The last time these two met in the knockout rounds, Haaland scored five as City won 7–0 at the Etihad in March 2023. That made him only the third player to score five in a Champions League game, after Lionel Messi and Luiz Adriano.

Cortex's call: over 2.5 goals, 69%, best price 1.38. Both teams to score is 66% (1.44) and a City win 59% (1.60).

Slavia Prague v Arsenal: the league leaders' Prague return

Arsenal arrive top of the Premier League after ending their 14-year wait for a league win at Anfield, and seventh in this table on seven points, still unbeaten after a 2–2 draw with Bayern. They are without Bukayo Saka, who has a thigh injury; Arsenal feared last week that he would miss at least six weeks. Slavia are 32nd with one point, which came from a 2–2 draw with Fenerbahçe, rescued by Pavel Kacor's 90th-minute equaliser.

Did you know? Arsenal won 3–0 in Prague a year ago almost to the day, on 4 November 2025, with a Saka penalty and two goals from Mikel Merino. That night Max Dowman, then 15, became the youngest player in Champions League history.

Cortex's call: Arsenal to win, 71%, best price 1.32. Over 2.5 goals is 63% (1.57).

Quick-fire: other ties worth a look

• AEK Athens v Real Madrid (Wed, 17:45): Real win, 72% (1.30); over 2.5 goals, 73% (1.33).
• Borussia Dortmund v Real Betis (Wed): Betis are fifth and perfect. Over 2.5 goals, 65% (1.53).
• Galatasaray v Stuttgart (Tue, 17:45): over 2.5 goals, 69% (1.42).
• Feyenoord v Inter (Tue): two sides on three points. Over 2.5 goals, 69% (1.42).
• Porto v Napoli (Wed): Porto, still without a point, or the draw: 73% (1.32).
• Shakhtar v Sporting (Tue, 17:45), PSV v Club Brugge (Wed) and Lens v Como (Wed)

These are Cortex's most likely outcomes, not guarantees: a 70% pick still loses three times in ten. If you combine picks, every leg has to win, so the overall chance drops fast. Every pick goes on our public track record, win or lose.

Sources: Cooperativa: table after matchday 3, Within Nigeria: table and format, Reuters via The Star: Tuesday's results, EconoTimes: Wednesday's results, Sports Mole: Como 4–1 Man Utd, Sports Mole: Emery, Wikipedia: 1982 European Super Cup, Al Jazeera: Kompany, AP via Yahoo Sports: Bayern 2–2 Dortmund, UEFA: the 1974 final, Al Jazeera: PSG injuries, Al Jazeera: 2021 Europa League final, ESPN: Chelsea 2–0 Man Utd, Sports Mole: United team news, UEFA: Carrick's double v Roma, FootballPredictions: Man Utd v Roma record, Sky Sports: Liverpool 0–1 Arsenal, Reuters via The Star: Liverpool injuries, BritBrief: Liverpool injury update, Daily Sabah: Galatasaray 2–1 Fenerbahçe, Wikipedia: 2019 UEFA Super Cup, beIN Sports: Maresca, Teletica: Como 4–1 Leipzig, ESPN: Haaland's five v Leipzig, Daily Cannon: Saka, Reuters via The Star: Slavia 0–3 Arsenal, 2025

18+. Our picks are chances, not certainties. Please bet responsibly.