Four stadiums, one weekend: Munich, Milan, Anfield and La Bombonera

Some weekends you circle in pencil. This one goes in ink. Four of the great rivalries in world football land inside 48 hours, the top three in the Premier League all face serious opposition, and in Germany and Italy the leaders walk into games that could reshape their seasons.

Here is the story behind each big game and how Cortex, our model, sees it. Every price is the best we found at the time of writing, and prices move before kick-off.

Bayern v Dortmund: two unbeaten sides, one empty dugout

For once, Der Klassiker arrives as a meeting of equals on paper. Bayern and Dortmund are the only unbeaten teams in the Bundesliga, both with five wins and two draws, and level on 17 points. Bayern are top on goal difference.

But Bayern will be without their head coach. Vincent Kompany collapsed at training on 23 October and was taken to hospital with a virus; the club said his recovery would take "weeks, not days". Assistant Aaron Danks takes the decisions again on Saturday.

• Bayern have scored 25 league goals, a club record 18 of them at home at this stage. Dortmund have conceded just six.
• Harry Kane, the newly crowned Ballon d'Or winner, and Michael Olise have nine goal involvements each. Gregor Kobel has never won any of his 10 Bundesliga games against Bayern.
• History leans one way: Bayern have lost only one of the last 17 meetings (W13 D3 L1) and won 3–2 when they last met in February.
• Team news: Luis Díaz is out, and Joshua Kimmich, Aleksandar Pavlović and Manuel Neuer were all listed as doubts earlier in the week.

Niko Kovač, a former Bayern boss himself, put it simply: "Bayern is undoubtedly the best of the best."

The history: The name borrows from Spain's El Clásico and caught on in 2013, the year Bayern and Dortmund knocked out Real Madrid and Barcelona to meet in the Champions League final at Wembley. Bayern won 2–1 with Arjen Robben's 89th-minute winner, and they lead the all-time record by 69 wins to 33.

Did you know? Bayern's biggest Bundesliga win is 11–1 against Dortmund, in November 1971. Robert Lewandowski is the fixture's top scorer with 32 goals.

Cortex's call: over 2.5 goals, 76%, best price 1.27. A Bayern win is close behind at 72% (1.36), and both teams to score is 65% (1.47). Expected goals: Bayern 2.31, Dortmund 1.04.

AC Milan v Inter: the leaders cross the city

Inter arrive for the Derby della Madonnina top of Serie A on 25 points, level with Lazio, unbeaten after nine games and with only a draw at Roma spoiling the record. Milan are fifth on 18, seven behind, under a new coach in Ruben Amorim, and come off their first league defeat of the season, 4–2 to Bologna.

• Inter are without Lautaro Martínez, out until the international break, plus John Stones and Benjamin Pavard.
• Milan get Adrien Rabiot, Gila and Diego Moreira back after they missed the Bologna game. Rabiot has four goals and three assists in seven league games. Loftus-Cheek, Saelemaekers and Chukwueze remain out.

The history: The derby is named after the Madonnina, the statue of the Madonna on top of Milan Cathedral. Inter were born in 1908, when a row over signing foreign players split Milan. The official record is close: 91 Inter wins, 84 for Milan and 71 draws, up to March 2026.

Did you know? Andriy Shevchenko is the record scorer with 14 goals, and the biggest win is Milan's 6–0 as the "away" side in May 2001.

Cortex's call: under 9.5 corners, 76%, best price 1.65. On the result, Inter or the draw is 73% (1.33), and both teams to score is 62% (1.57). Cortex has Inter just ahead on expected goals, 1.72 to 1.53.

Liverpool v Arsenal: the champions at Anfield

Arsenal ended a 22-year wait for the title last May, but Anfield remains a stubborn ground for them: their last league win there came in September 2012. They arrive second on 21 points, with seven wins from eight, level on points with Manchester City. Liverpool, in their first season under Andoni Iraola, are fourth on 15 after a 2–0 win over Brighton last weekend.

Arsenal's week has been rough. On Tuesday they went out of the Carabao Cup on penalties at League Two Fleetwood Town after a 1–1 draw, and 16-year-old Max Dowman was sent off. The FA rejected Arsenal's appeal, so his three-match ban starts at Anfield. Bukayo Saka is out with a thigh injury picked up against Bayern, and Arsenal fear he will miss at least six weeks.

Liverpool have their own list. Jeremie Frimpong has a new muscle injury, Hugo Ekitike is still recovering from his Achilles injury, and Dominik Szoboszlai has been battling a hamstring problem. Florian Wirtz twisted an ankle against Brighton, but Iraola said: "It doesn't look big." The last meeting, in January, finished 0–0.

The history: In 1971 Charlie George's extra-time winner beat Liverpool 2–1 in the FA Cup final and completed Arsenal's first league and cup double. In May 1989 Arsenal needed to win at Anfield by two goals on the last day, and Michael Thomas scored the second in stoppage time to take the title on goals scored.

Did you know? The 1989 decider was moved to a Friday night in May after the Hillsborough disaster, and over 12 million watched on ITV at its peak.

Cortex's call: Liverpool or draw, 60%, best price 1.62. Both teams to score is 56% (1.67). Cortex actually rates Arsenal a fraction higher on expected goals (1.14 to 1.00), so this is a home-advantage pick, not a vote against the champions.

Boca v River: a title in sight, a year to rescue

The Superclásico comes to La Bombonera on Sunday, and the two clubs arrive in very different places. Boca lead the annual table on 57 points, one ahead of Rosario Central, are third in Zona A of the Clausura, and have a Copa Sudamericana final against Atlético Mineiro ahead. Under Rodolfo Arruabarrena they have lost just once in 21 games.

River, now led by Leonardo Ponzio, are fourth in Zona B and seventh in the annual table on 52 points, only three above the last Copa Libertadores place. Argentine press have called it a very difficult year.

• Boca won the last two Superclásicos: 2–0 at home last November, then 1–0 at the Monumental in April with a Leandro Paredes penalty.
• River are without Fausto Vera (muscle injury). Boca are missing Agustín Marchesín, Adam Bareiro, Tomás Aranda and Tomás Belmonte with long-term injuries.

The history: Both clubs were born in La Boca, the dockland district of Buenos Aires: River in 1901, Boca in 1905. River won the first official meeting 2–1 in 1913. The most famous was the 2018 Copa Libertadores final, whose second leg was moved to Madrid's Santiago Bernabéu; River won 5–3 on aggregate.

Did you know? In 2004 The Observer put the Superclásico first on its list of 50 sporting things to do before you die. Boca lead the official record 94 wins to 88, with 84 draws.

Cortex's call: Boca or draw, 72%, best price 1.34. It expects a tight one: under 2.5 goals is 62% (1.55) and "no" to both teams scoring is 54% (1.75). Expected goals: Boca 1.41, River 0.93.

Chelsea v Man Utd: Carrick keeps the keys, for now

After the 3–0 home defeat to Bournemouth, reports from the BBC, Sky Sports and PA say Michael Carrick will stay in charge for the trip to Stamford Bridge. United are 16th with seven points, eight league games without a win, and on their worst league start in 40 years. Xabi Alonso's Chelsea are fifth on 13.

• United are without Manuel Ugarte, Benjamin Šeško, Luke Shaw and Patrick Dorgu. Kobbie Mainoo is back in training, and Bruno Fernandes is expected to return to the starting XI after he and Carrick reportedly cleared the air.
• United won this fixture 1–0 last April.

The history: Their biggest night came in Moscow on 21 May 2008, in the first Champions League final between two English clubs. After a 1–1 draw, John Terry slipped and hit the post with the penalty that would have won it, and Edwin van der Sar saved from Nicolas Anelka to give United a 6–5 shoot-out win.

Did you know? In October 2012 Chelsea won a League Cup tie between them 5–4 after extra time.

Cortex's call: over 9.5 corners, 69%, best price 1.75. Over 3.5 cards is 63% (1.37) and both teams to score 62% (1.57). Cortex has Chelsea well ahead on expected goals, 2.05 to 1.44.

Man City v Brighton: round two in four days

First v third, and they have only just met. On Wednesday, the Carabao Cup tie at the Etihad finished 2–2, and City went through 4–3 on penalties after backup goalkeeper Gerónimo Rulli saved from Yasin Ayari and Lewis Dunk. Enzo Maresca made nine changes that night, so Saturday will look very different.

City top the table on 21 points but lost their first league game of the season at Aston Villa last weekend. Brighton are third on 16 and also lost last time out, at Anfield. They are still the league's highest scorers per game, and they beat Arsenal 3–0 in September. Erling Haaland has nine league goals.

The history: They first met in the FA Cup in February 1924, when City won 5–1 at Brighton's Goldstone Ground. Brighton's best day against them came in January 1983, a 4–0 FA Cup win on the way to their first FA Cup final.

Did you know? In that final, against Manchester United, Gordon Smith's late chance to win it was saved by Gary Bailey as the radio commentator called "...and Smith must score". United won the replay.

Cortex's call: over 2.5 goals, 69%, best price 1.42. Both teams to score is 66% (1.47), and a City win 56% (1.70). Cortex's expected goals are almost level: City 2.05, Brighton 1.96.

Three more on Cortex's radar

• Juventus v Napoli (Sunday): level on 14 points after nine games. Napoli won their 2012 Coppa Italia final 2–0, in Alessandro Del Piero's last game for Juventus. Cortex: Napoli or draw, 59% (1.68); both teams to score, 54% (1.75).
• Ajax v AZ (Saturday): second v fifth in the Eredivisie. Cortex: over 2.5 goals, 69% (1.39); both teams to score, 67% (1.44).
• Athletic Club v Real Sociedad (Sunday): the Basque derby. Real Sociedad won 3–2 at Anoeta in November 2025; they also won the 2020 Copa del Rey final between them 1–0, played in April 2021. Cortex: Athletic or draw, 72% (1.37); both teams to score, 61% (1.59).

Quick-fire: other games worth a look

• Barcelona v Alavés (Sat): Barça win, 87% (1.12), as the leaders respond to the Clásico defeat.
• Racing Santander v Real Madrid (Sun): Madrid win, 75% (1.25).
• Levante v Atlético Madrid (Sat)
• Tottenham v Crystal Palace (Sat)
• Falkirk v Celtic (Sun)
• Kasımpaşa v Beşiktaş and Fenerbahçe v Göztepe
• Newcastle v Everton (Mon)

These are Cortex's most likely outcomes, not guarantees: a 70% pick still loses three times in ten. If you combine picks, every leg has to win, so the overall chance drops fast. Every pick goes on our public track record, win or lose.

Sources: theScore: Bayern v Dortmund, Bundesliga.com, beIN Sports, Al Jazeera on Kompany, Inter.it, Fanpage, CalcioNapoli24 table, theScore: Liverpool v Arsenal, Premier League News Now, ESPN on Dowman, Daily Cannon on Saka, Anfield Index via Yahoo, ESPN on Arsenal's title, La Nación, El Intransigente, theScore: Chelsea v Man Utd, AFP via Express Tribune, Sports Mole, Al Jazeera on Alonso, ESPN: City 2–2 Brighton, theScore: City v Brighton, Dawan Africa, LaLiga, Wikipedia: Der Klassiker, Wikipedia: Derby della Madonnina, Wikipedia: 1971 FA Cup final, Wikipedia: Liverpool 0–2 Arsenal (1989), Wikipedia: Superclásico, Wikipedia: 2008 Champions League final, 90min: Man Utd v Chelsea record, We Are Brighton: Brighton v Man City history, Wikipedia: 1983 FA Cup final, Wikipedia: Juventus–Napoli rivalry, theScore: 2020 Copa del Rey final

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