Sunday Premier League predictions: Liverpool v Brighton, Man Utd v Bournemouth and more
Four Premier League games kick off together on Sunday. Our model sees goals at both ends almost everywhere, and Brighton arrive at Anfield as the in-form side.
Four Premier League games kick off together on Sunday, and our model has a clear theme: goals at both ends. In three of the four, both teams to score comes out at 63% or higher.
One honest note before the picks. At the prices we found, none of these games shows real value: our chances and the bookmakers' chances are close. So treat these as our most likely outcomes rather than bets where we think the market has it wrong. Live prices and picks are in the boxes below and update through the day.
Liverpool v Brighton
This is the most interesting game on the card. Brighton come to Anfield third in the table with 16 points from 7 games and a last five of WWWWD. They are scoring 3.3 a game and conceding 0.7. Liverpool are fifth on 12 points (WLWDW).
Our model is not convinced by the home side here. It gives Brighton the higher expected goals, 2.3 to Liverpool's 1.2, and its single most likely score is 1-2. Even so, home advantage keeps Liverpool or the draw at 66%.
- Our pick: over 2.5 goals, 64% chance, best price 1.55
- Both teams to score: 65%
- Liverpool or draw: 66%
The bookmakers have Liverpool as favourites at 2.16. If you agree with our model that Brighton are the better side right now, that is the price that looks short.
Manchester United v Bournemouth
Two sides in the bottom half, and neither is winning much. United have drawn four of their last five (DDDLD) and sit 13th. Bournemouth are 15th and conceding 1.9 a game.
Our model has United on top in chance creation (2.3 expected goals to 1.3) and makes 2-1 the most likely score. United or the draw is a 72% chance, but at 1.39 there is little in the price.
- Our pick: both teams to score, 63% chance, best price 1.55
- Over 2.5 goals: 60%
- United or draw: 72%
Crystal Palace v Newcastle
The strongest both-teams-to-score case of the day. Palace concede 2.4 a game, Newcastle 2.0, and our model has expected goals of 2.2 for Palace and 1.8 for Newcastle.
- Our pick: both teams to score, 69% chance, best price 1.46
- Over 2.5 goals: 63%
- Newcastle or draw: 66%
Hull City v Brentford
The tightest of the four. Brentford are the bookmakers' clear favourites at 1.73, and our model agrees they are the more likely winners at 53%, but it expects a closer game than that price suggests, with 1-1 the most likely score.
- Our pick: both teams to score, 56% chance, best price 1.67
- Brentford to win: 53%
How we'll grade this
Every pick above goes on our public track record after full time, win or lose. If you add picks to the bet slip, remember that every leg of an accumulator has to win, so the combined chance drops quickly.
Live picks
Straight from our model and updated through the day. Kick-off times are in your local time.
Questions
Will both teams score in Liverpool v Brighton?
Our model gives both teams to score a 65% chance. It expects Brighton to create more, with expected goals of 2.3 to Liverpool's 1.2.
What is the best value pick on Sunday?
None of the four games shows clear value at the prices available when we checked. Our picks are the most likely sensible outcomes, not value bets, and prices can change before kick-off.
How are these predictions made?
We estimate expected goals for each side, turn them into scoreline chances, blend that with the betting market's view, and compare the result with the best available price.